Blackjack is all about probability, and almost every decision at the table has already been tested thousands of different ways. Hit or stand. Double or take one card normally. Split or keep the pair together. Take insurance or leave it alone.
Better choice doesn’t always mean a winning hand. A player can make a logical move and lose immediately. Also, one can make a terrible decision, catch exactly the perfect card and look like a genius.
Blackjack Has One of the Smallest House Edges
One reason blackjack has remained so popular is that the casino advantage can be surprisingly low, often around 0.5%.
If the house edge is 0.5%, the casino advantage on $10,000 worth of betting is around $50. Push that to 2%, and it becomes $200. At 4%, it is $400. None of those figures tell you what will happen at the table. You could be $300 up after half an hour or lose your bankroll in minutes. They are long term numbers.
Blackjack strategy is really about making sure you are not turning a relatively low edge game into a much more expensive one.
You Are Not Actually Trying to Reach 21 Every Hand
Surely the whole point of playing blackjack online is to get as close to 21 as possible? Yes, but not in the way many beginners imagine. Your real goal is to beat the dealer.
Take a hand of 13. Thirteen is obviously not strong. But 13 against a dealer 6 is very different from 13 against a dealer 10.
Against the 6, standing would be the best choice. The dealer is in a weak position and has to keep drawing until reaching the required total. There’s a decent chance the dealer busts before your 13 ever needs to do anything.
Against a 10, waiting on 13 is much less attractive. Now you are probably already behind, and the dealer has a much better chance of ending up with a strong hand.
The Dealer’s Card Tells You How Aggressive to Be
A quick way to understand blackjack is to look at the dealer’s upcard.
Dealer cards from 2 through 6 are generally considered weaker. Dealer cards from 7 through ace are stronger. That doesn’t mean a dealer showing 6 is guaranteed to bust, obviously, since sometimes the dealer can turn 6 into 21 with ease.
If the dealer starts with a 5 or 6, there are plenty of ways that forced drawing process can go wrong. As a player, you don’t always need to help. That’s why a tricky hand such as 13 or 14 can sometimes be left alone against a weak dealer card in hopes that the dealer is in worse shape.
Hard 16 Against 10 Feels Terrible
There are certain blackjack hands nobody enjoys playing, and hard 16 against a dealer 10 is probably the king of them. Hit and you have a big chance of busting. Stand and you are sitting there with 16 while the dealer starts from 10. Neither option feels like the right path.
If surrender is available, giving up half the bet on a hard 16 against a dealer 10 is often the best option.
If surrender is not available, hitting is normally the standard play.
Standing on 16 against a 10 usually ends badly for the player.
Seventeen Is Where You Usually Stop
Hard 17 is much easier. You normally stand. Why? Because there simply are not enough good cards left to justify taking the risk. Most of the deck left sends you straight past 21.
Soft 17 is another matter. A soft hand includes an ace being counted as 11. Ace 6 is the classic example. If you take another card and draw a 10, you’re good since Ace would be counted as 1.
Soft hands can often be played more aggressively because the ace gives you some protection from busting.
Doubling Down
Doubling down is one of the best parts of the game because it gives you a chance to double your winnings with a good hand.
Let’s say you have 11 and the dealer has a weak card. That’s a great position. Any 10, jack, queen or king gives you 21.
This is why doubling 11 is so common in basic strategy. The same idea applies in some situations with 9, 10 and certain soft hands.
Splitting Aces
Two Aces in one hand call for a split since you can’t have 22. You either have a total of 2 or 12, depending on how you count them.
Split them and now you have two separate hands beginning with an ace. Every 10 value card creates 21. That’s a far better position.
Keep in mind that most blackjack tables put some restrictions on split aces. You may only receive one additional card on each hand, for example.
Splitting 8s
A pair of 8s is trickier. Together they make 16, which is already one of the least enjoyable totals in the game. Basic strategy generally tells you to split them.
That means placing another bet on the table and turning one awful hand into two hopeful ones.
You are starting from such a weak position that breaking it apart is usually the better option. Each new hand begins with an 8. Catch a 10 and you have 18. Catch an ace and you have 19. Catch a 2 and you have 10, which can become an attractive doubling hand.
Splitting 10s
Then there’s the opposite situation. You are dealt two 10 value cards. You already have 20. Stay still.
Twenty is one of the best hands you can have. Splitting 10s gives up a hugely powerful total in the hope of getting two even better hands. That can happen. It can also produce a 15 and a 16.
The temptation often comes when the dealer is showing something weak such as 5 or 6. Players imagine creating two big hands and winning twice, but the result is often the opposite.
Insurance Is Not Protection
Few blackjack bets have a better name than insurance. The dealer shows an ace and you are offered a side bet that pays 2:1 if the hidden card gives the dealer blackjack. It sounds logical. Protect yourself. Cover the risk.
Except insurance is not really protection. It’s a separate wager with its own house edge.
Fewer than one third of the cards in a standard deck are worth 10. For a 2:1 insurance bet to be fair, the dealer would need to have a 10 value card 1/3 of the time. The probability normally falls short of that mark.
A 3:2 Blackjack Table Is Much Better Than 6:5
This may be the most important number to check before you even sit down. Usually blackjack pays 3:2. At 3:2, you win $3 for every $2 you bet. So a $20 bet pays $30 profit, plus your original $20 stake back. You receive $50 total.
At some tables, blackjack pays 6:5 instead, meaning you win $6 for every $5 you bet. A $20 bet pays only $24 profit, plus your $20 stake back. You receive $44 total.
A flashy table with low minimum bets may not be such a bargain if it only pays 6:5. The blackjack payout should always be one of the first things you check.
One Bad Result Doesn’t Mean the Strategy Was Wrong
This is probably the hardest part of blackjack to accept. You can do everything right and still lose.
Say you have 11 against a dealer 6. You double. You draw a 2. The dealer pulls a 5, then a 10 and finishes with 21. That feels terrible, but it doesn’t mean that doubling was wrong.
Good decisions lose all the time. Bad decisions win all the time.
Betting Systems Do Not Change the Cards
Blackjack has attracted endless staking systems. Double after every loss. Raise your bet after two wins. Drop back to the minimum after a blackjack.
These strategies could potentially change the outcome, but they can also change how quickly your bankroll moves up or down.
What they cannot do is change the underlying probability of the next hand. If the game has a house edge, changing the size of your next bet doesn’t make that edge disappear. A progressive system can produce lots of small winning sessions before one bad run wipes out the previous gains.
Flat betting usually creates fewer dramatic swings.
Neither approach alters the cards themselves. This is why playing strategy and betting strategy shouldn’t be confused. How you play the hand affects mathematical expectations. How much you bet affects how much money is at risk to that expectation.
Blackjack Strategy Is Mostly About Not Giving Money Away
There’s no secret formula hiding in blackjack. Basic strategy doesn’t turn the game into a guaranteed winner. It doesn’t make bad cards disappear, nor does it stop the dealer from pulling a 5 card 21 when you are sitting on 20.
What it does is stop you from making mistakes.
You stand when the dealer is in a weaker position.
You hit when your hand is too poor to wait.
You double when the numbers justify putting more money.
You split pairs when two new hands are stronger than the original one.
You avoid insurance unless you have a very specific reason not to.
And you check the table rules before you start playing.
That’s really what blackjack strategy comes down to.