A potential turning point may be underway for the crypto market. Bitcoin is showing early signs of recovery after weeks of sluggish performance, with analysts pointing to recent policy shifts from both the White House and the Federal Reserve as key drivers.
Ahead of the April 2nd “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, US President Donald Trump suggested he would be “flexible” on the reciprocal tariffs That same week, the Federal Reserve signaled a more dovish stance during its March 18-19 meeting, raising hopes that easing monetary conditions may offer much-needed relief to risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies.
While the last couple weeks have been rocky to say the least, some analysts to suggest that Bitcoin may have formed a bottom and will be looking to find support above $80,000.
A New Hope for the Crypto Market
Trump’s softened rhetoric on trade has breathed new life into the market, with the president stating there would be “flexibility” around the rollout of the upcoming tariffs. The move was widely seen as an effort to calm investors rattled by escalating trade tensions. Meanwhile, the Fed’s decision to maintain interest rates and signal potential future cuts has given further support to financial markets.
According to price data on Binance, as of April 9th most major digital assets have posted losses over the past seven days, but over the last 24 hours markets are seeing the bounce we’ve all been waiting for. Bitcoin is up 5.86%, Ethereum has gained 8.27%, BNB is up 5.45%, and Solana has surged 12.81%. These moves are notable considering the recent market headwinds tied to fears of a global trade war.
The timing suggests a strong market response to both developments, underscoring investor optimism around macroeconomic policy easing. While volatility still looms large, the crypto market appears to be regaining some footing, with renewed optimism among traders and investors alike. This upward momentum has also encouraged higher trading volumes across leading exchanges, a signal that market participation is increasing after a quiet first quarter.
Bitcoin Bottom Forming
Analysts at 10x Research believe Bitcoin may have already hit a local bottom. In a recent report, founder Markus Thielen noted that Bitcoin is attempting to reverse its downtrend, with the 21-day moving average climbing to $85,200 and multiple technical indicators flashing bullish signals. He drew parallels to similar moments in September 2023 and August 2024, when price action reversed following key macro catalysts.
Thielen emphasized that the combination of Trump’s softer tone on tariffs and the Fed’s willingness to look past short-term inflationary pressure has set the stage for a potential breakout. While he cautioned that there’s no immediate catalyst for a parabolic move, the current technical reset offers room for upside, especially if macro conditions continue to improve.
Bitcoin ETF inflows have also returned for the first time since late January, further supporting the bullish case. According to Thielen, arbitrage-related selling in the ETF space has mostly wound down, eliminating some of the downward pressure that plagued the market in recent weeks.
Still, caution remains warranted. On March 27, Trump announced a new round of 25% tariffs on car imports, fueling concerns that the global trade war may be intensifying. Stocks pulled back in response, and some of the crypto market’s recent gains have already begun to fade. Investors are now closely watching whether Trump’s flexibility will extend beyond rhetoric as “Liberation Day” approaches.
Adding to the complexity is the broader macro environment. Inflation expectations remain elevated, and any shift in the Fed’s tone could reignite uncertainty. For now, however, the dovish lean from policymakers has aligned with more bullish technical signals, forming what could be the foundation for a sustained recovery in the crypto space.
Despite the renewed volatility, the crypto market seems to be in a better position than it was earlier this month. The confluence of macro shifts—from more accommodative signals by the Fed to slightly more market-friendly language from the White House—suggests that Bitcoin’s recent lows could mark a local bottom.
Whether this sets the stage for a sustained rally or just a short-lived bounce remains to be seen. For now, though, the market is finally showing signs of life after weeks of unease.